OpenAI vs xAI (SpaceXAI)
Head-to-head for the week of 26 Oct 2026.
| Metric | OpenAI | xAI (SpaceXAI) | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 68.6 5/5 | 58.3 5/5 | OpenAI |
| Rank | #3 | #5 | OpenAI |
| Coverage | 5/5 | 5/5 | n/a |
| Arena text (rank, score, model) | #21 · 1485 GPT-5.6 Sol (xHigh) | #39 · 1475 Grok 4.20 Beta 1 | OpenAI |
| AA Intelligence Index (index, position, model) | 52.7 · #9 GPT-6 Astra (Max) | 46.4 · #25 Grok 4.7 (Xhigh) | OpenAI |
| Revenue run-rate | $50B annualized run-rate, end of September (net of partner share) 30 Sept 2026 · Axios (opens in new tab) | $30.2B Q3 2026 Super Intelligence (SI) segment revenue × 4 (computed; segment includes compute rental, Cursor and X ads) 30 Sept 2026 · SpaceX Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K) (opens in new tab) | OpenAI |
| Revenue (claimed, not scored) | $70B not scored | n/a | n/a |
| Valuation (latest closed) | $852B post-money, $122B round 31 Mar 2026 · OpenAI (opens in new tab) | $250B implied value in the SpaceX all-stock merger 2 Feb 2026 · Reuters (opens in new tab) | OpenAI |
| Valuation (in talks, not scored) | $1.25T not scored | n/a | n/a |
| Total funding (not scored) | $178B 16 Oct 2026 · StockAnalysis (funding database) (opens in new tab) | No reliable public figure. | n/a |
| Polymarket 2026 #1 odds · Change vs 19 Oct 2026 | 5.7% −1.6pp | 0.95% −0.7pp | OpenAI |
| Arena component | 68 | 58 | OpenAI |
| AA component | 91.4 | 80.6 | OpenAI |
| Revenue component | 95.5 | 87.7 | OpenAI |
| Valuation component | 98.2 | 80.3 | OpenAI |
| Odds component | 10.7 | 1.8 | OpenAI |
Arena: manual snapshot as of 22 Oct 2026 (source). Artificial Analysis: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (source). Polymarket: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (primary market).
Other prediction markets
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
OpenAI0.65%
xAI (SpaceXAI)not in top 4
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
OpenAI4%
xAI (SpaceXAI)not in top 4
Compute (not scored)
OpenAI
- Planned capacity by 2030 (told investors): 30 GW (9 Sept 2026 · AI-RTZ (opens in new tab))
- Compute spend forecast through 2030: ~$750B (9 Sept 2026 · AI-RTZ (The Information) (opens in new tab))
xAI (SpaceXAI)
- Colossus 2, current IT power (est.), largest tracked: ~946 MW (15 Oct 2026 · Epoch AI (opens in new tab))
- AI-segment capex, Q1 2026: $7.7B (31 Mar 2026 · TechCrunch (S-1) (opens in new tab))
Compute figures use different methodologies across labs, so they're listed, not scored; see /compute/ for the comparable Epoch AI estimates (methodology).
History
| Week | OpenAI | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 backfilled | #3 · 68.8 | #6 · 49.7 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | #3 · 67.3 | #6 · 49.4 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | #3 · 66.9 | #6 · 49.3 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | #3 · 66.1 | #6 · 49.2 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | #3 · 68.6 | #5 · 58.3 |
FAQ
Which scores higher, OpenAI or xAI (SpaceXAI)?
OpenAI (68.6/100 vs 58.3/100).
Which ranks higher on the Arena leaderboard?
OpenAI (#21 vs #39).
Which has the higher revenue run-rate?
OpenAI ($50B vs $30.2B).
Which has the higher 2026 Polymarket odds of the best AI model?
OpenAI (5.7% vs 0.95%).