DeepSeek vs xAI (SpaceXAI)
Head-to-head for the week of 26 Oct 2026.
| Metric | DeepSeek | xAI (SpaceXAI) | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 45.3 5/5 | 58.3 5/5 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Rank | #9 | #5 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Coverage | 5/5 | 5/5 | n/a |
| Arena text (rank, score, model) | #34 · 1476 DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-20260910 (Max) | #39 · 1475 Grok 4.20 Beta 1 | DeepSeek |
| AA Intelligence Index (index, position, model) | 45.1 · #30 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 (Max) | 46.4 · #25 Grok 4.7 (Xhigh) | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Revenue run-rate | $1B annualized revenue, September (third-party estimate) 30 Sept 2026 · Sacra (estimate) (opens in new tab) | $30.2B Q3 2026 Super Intelligence (SI) segment revenue × 4 (computed; segment includes compute rental, Cursor and X ads) 30 Sept 2026 · SpaceX Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K) (opens in new tab) | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Valuation (latest closed) | $51.8B post-money of first external round (~RMB350.88B) 17 Jul 2026 · Caixin / Sacra (opens in new tab) | $250B implied value in the SpaceX all-stock merger 2 Feb 2026 · Reuters (opens in new tab) | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Valuation (in talks, not scored) | $75B not scored | n/a | n/a |
| Total funding (not scored) | $7.4B 17 Jul 2026 · Caixin (opens in new tab) | No reliable public figure. | n/a |
| Polymarket 2026 #1 odds · Change vs 19 Oct 2026 | 0.35% ±0pp | 0.95% −0.7pp | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Arena component | 59 | 58 | DeepSeek |
| AA component | 78.3 | 80.6 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Revenue component | 35.4 | 87.7 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Valuation component | 57.4 | 80.3 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
| Odds component | 0.7 | 1.8 | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
Arena: manual snapshot as of 22 Oct 2026 (source). Artificial Analysis: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (source). Polymarket: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (primary market).
Compute (not scored)
DeepSeek
- No compute disclosures.
xAI (SpaceXAI)
- Colossus 2, current IT power (est.), largest tracked: ~946 MW (15 Oct 2026 · Epoch AI (opens in new tab))
- AI-segment capex, Q1 2026: $7.7B (31 Mar 2026 · TechCrunch (S-1) (opens in new tab))
Compute figures use different methodologies across labs, so they're listed, not scored; see /compute/ for the comparable Epoch AI estimates (methodology).
History
| Week | DeepSeek | xAI (SpaceXAI) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 backfilled | #9 · 41.2 | #6 · 49.7 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | #9 · 41.2 | #6 · 49.4 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | #9 · 42.6 | #6 · 49.3 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | #9 · 42.6 | #6 · 49.2 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | #9 · 45.3 | #5 · 58.3 |
FAQ
Which scores higher, DeepSeek or xAI (SpaceXAI)?
xAI (SpaceXAI) (58.3/100 vs 45.3/100).
Which ranks higher on the Arena leaderboard?
DeepSeek (#34 vs #39).
Which has the higher revenue run-rate?
xAI (SpaceXAI) ($30.2B vs $1B).
Which has the higher 2026 Polymarket odds of the best AI model?
xAI (SpaceXAI) (0.95% vs 0.35%).