Polymarket best AI model odds
Every "best AI model" market we track on Polymarket, side by side, so you can see how traders expect the lead to move over time. Ranked single-market view: Polymarket odds leaderboard.
Data as of the week of 26 Oct 2026 (updated 26 Oct 2026, 08:09, Bucharest time). Every figure links to its source; see the methodology.
What the markets say
For end of October, traders favour Google DeepMind at 85%. For end of 2026, the favourite is Anthropic at 53.5%. The favourite flips between the near-term and the end-of-year market: traders expect the lead to change hands.
Odds by resolution date
| Lab | Which company has the best AI model end of October? resolves 31 Oct 2026 | Which company has the best AI model end of November? resolves 30 Nov 2026 | Which company has best AI model end of 2026? resolves 31 Dec 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google DeepMind | 85% | 47.5% | 32.5% |
| Anthropic | 11.8% | 45.5% | 53.5% |
| OpenAI | 0.65% | 4% | 5.7% |
| Meta Superintelligence Labs | 0.4% | 2.25% | 1.4% |
| Volume | $3.59M Polymarket ↗ (opens in new tab) | $0.42M Polymarket ↗ (opens in new tab) | $3.02M Polymarket ↗ (opens in new tab) |
Fetched 26 Oct 2026, 08:08 (Bucharest time) from Polymarket's public API. Top 4 outcomes per market. Prices are trader-implied probabilities, not facts, and not betting advice.
"Which company has best AI model end of 2026?" across our snapshots
| Lab | 10 Oct 2026 backfilled | 17 Oct 2026 | 19 Oct 2026 | 22 Oct 2026 | 26 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 41.5% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Google DeepMind | 42.5% | 39.5% | 39.5% | 43% | 32.5% |
| OpenAI | 9.95% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% |
| Meta Superintelligence Labs | 2.15% | 2.75% | 2.15% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
FAQ
Who is the Polymarket favourite for best AI model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic at 53.5%, then Google DeepMind at 32.5%. Anthropic moved +4pp vs 19 Oct 2026.
Why do the monthly markets disagree with the end-of-year one?
They resolve on different dates. Google DeepMind leads the nearest market (85%), while Anthropic leads the end-of-year one (53.5%), so traders price a change at the top before year end.
How much money is in these markets?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?: $3.59M; Which company has the best AI model end of November?: $0.42M; Which company has best AI model end of 2026?: $3.02M.
Do Polymarket odds affect the AI Race score?
Yes, the end-of-2026 market is one of five components (20 of 100 points). The monthly markets are shown but not scored.