Mistral AI vs OpenAI
Head-to-head for the week of 26 Oct 2026.
| Metric | Mistral AI | OpenAI | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 27.7 5/5 | 68.6 5/5 | OpenAI |
| Rank | #10 | #3 | OpenAI |
| Coverage | 5/5 | 5/5 | n/a |
| Arena text (rank, score, model) | #111 · 1434 Mistral Large 4 | #21 · 1485 GPT-5.6 Sol (xHigh) | OpenAI |
| AA Intelligence Index (index, position, model) | 38.4 · #49 Mistral Large 4 Preview | 52.7 · #9 GPT-6 Astra (Max) | OpenAI |
| Revenue run-rate | $1B ARR, 'slightly above $1B' per CFO 8 Sept 2026 · WSJ (opens in new tab) | $50B annualized run-rate, end of September (net of partner share) 30 Sept 2026 · Axios (opens in new tab) | OpenAI |
| Revenue (claimed, not scored) | n/a | $70B not scored | n/a |
| Valuation (latest closed) | $24B post-money, ~€21B, Series D 8 Sept 2026 · Reuters (opens in new tab) | $852B post-money, $122B round 31 Mar 2026 · OpenAI (opens in new tab) | OpenAI |
| Valuation (in talks, not scored) | n/a | $1.25T not scored | n/a |
| Total funding (not scored) | $7.5B 8 Sept 2026 · Crunchbase News (opens in new tab) | $178B 16 Oct 2026 · StockAnalysis (funding database) (opens in new tab) | n/a |
| Polymarket 2026 #1 odds · Change vs 19 Oct 2026 | 0.15% −0.1pp | 5.7% −1.6pp | OpenAI |
| Arena component | 17 | 68 | OpenAI |
| AA component | 66.6 | 91.4 | OpenAI |
| Revenue component | 35.4 | 95.5 | OpenAI |
| Valuation component | 46.2 | 98.2 | OpenAI |
| Odds component | 0.3 | 10.7 | OpenAI |
Arena: manual snapshot as of 22 Oct 2026 (source). Artificial Analysis: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (source). Polymarket: fetched 26 Oct 2026 (primary market).
Other prediction markets
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Mistral AInot in top 4
OpenAI0.65%
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Mistral AInot in top 4
OpenAI4%
Compute (not scored)
Mistral AI
- No compute disclosures.
OpenAI
- Planned capacity by 2030 (told investors): 30 GW (9 Sept 2026 · AI-RTZ (opens in new tab))
- Compute spend forecast through 2030: ~$750B (9 Sept 2026 · AI-RTZ (The Information) (opens in new tab))
Compute figures use different methodologies across labs, so they're listed, not scored; see /compute/ for the comparable Epoch AI estimates (methodology).
History
| Week | Mistral AI | OpenAI |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 backfilled | #10 · 24.6 | #3 · 68.8 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | #10 · 24.6 | #3 · 67.3 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | #10 · 24.6 | #3 · 66.9 |
| 22 Oct 2026 | #10 · 24.6 | #3 · 66.1 |
| 26 Oct 2026 | #10 · 27.7 | #3 · 68.6 |
FAQ
Which scores higher, Mistral AI or OpenAI?
OpenAI (68.6/100 vs 27.7/100).
Which ranks higher on the Arena leaderboard?
OpenAI (#21 vs #111).
Which has the higher revenue run-rate?
OpenAI ($50B vs $1B).
Which has the higher 2026 Polymarket odds of the best AI model?
OpenAI (5.7% vs 0.15%).