Polymarket AI odds history
How the prediction market has priced each AI lab over time, snapshot by snapshot, from our saved data. For the current odds and how they feed the score, see Polymarket best AI model odds.
Data as of the week of 26 Oct 2026 (updated 26 Oct 2026, 08:09, Bucharest time). Every figure links to its source; see the methodology.
"Best AI model end of 2026" odds at every snapshot
| Lab | 10 Oct 2026 backfilled | 17 Oct 2026 | 19 Oct 2026 | 22 Oct 2026 | 26 Oct 2026 | Change since 10 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 41.5% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% | +12pp |
| Google DeepMind | 42.5% | 39.5% | 39.5% | 43% | 32.5% | −10pp |
| OpenAI | 9.95% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | −4.2pp |
| Meta Superintelligence Labs | 2.15% | 2.75% | 2.15% | 1.3% | 1.4% | −0.7pp |
| xAI (SpaceXAI) | 2.05% | 1.65% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.95% | −1.1pp |
| Alibaba (Qwen) | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.35% | 0.4% | 0.45% | −0.1pp |
| Moonshot AI (Kimi) | 0.55% | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.45% | −0.1pp |
| Z.ai (Zhipu) | 0.4% | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.25% | 0.25% | −0.1pp |
| DeepSeek | 0.45% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.35% | 0.35% | −0.1pp |
| Mistral AI | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.15% | 0.15% | −0.1pp |
Yes price for each lab in the Polymarket market Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (opens in new tab) as saved in each weekly snapshot. Backfilled snapshots were reconstructed after the fact. Changes in percentage points are computed by us.
All tracked "best AI model" markets right now
| Market | Resolves | Leader | Runner-up | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (opens in new tab) | 2026-12-31 | Anthropic 53.5% | Google 32.5% | $3.02M |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? (opens in new tab) | 2026-10-31 | Google 85% | Anthropic 11.8% | $3.59M |
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? (opens in new tab) | 2026-11-30 | Google 47.5% | Anthropic 45.5% | $0.42M |
Prices as fetched on 26 Oct 2026, 08:08 (Bucharest time). Prices are what traders pay, not facts or advice.
FAQ
Who is the Polymarket favourite for the best AI model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic at 53.5% in the 26 Oct 2026 snapshot.
Whose odds moved the most?
Anthropic, +12 percentage points between 10 Oct 2026 and 26 Oct 2026 (computed by us).
Has the favourite changed?
Yes, the favourite changed at: 17 Oct 2026: Anthropic.
How often are odds saved?
Once per weekly snapshot (plus any extra snapshot we publish). Between snapshots the live price can move a lot; follow the market link for the current price.