Google DeepMind retakes #1 as Anthropic's odds slip
Google DeepMind is #1 on the scoreboard again, with a weighted score of 96.0 as of 22 Oct 2026, ahead of Anthropic's 94.4. Three days earlier, in the 19 Oct 2026 snapshot, Anthropic led 94.4 to 92.3, after taking the top spot in the 17 Oct snapshot.
Anthropic's own score did not move: it is 94.4 in all three snapshots (17, 19 and 22 Oct). What changed is Google's odds component.
What moved: one market
Between 19 Oct and 22 Oct, the Arena snapshot (as of 15 Oct 2026) and Artificial Analysis component scores did not change for either lab. The only input that moved for the top two is Polymarket's "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?" market:
| Lab | Yes price, 19 Oct | Yes price, 22 Oct |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 49.5% | 46.5% |
| 39.5% | 43.0% | |
| OpenAI | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Meta | 2.15% | 1.3% |
The odds component is scaled to the highest price in the market. Anthropic still has the highest Yes price, so its component stays at 100. Google's rose from 79.8 (39.5 / 49.5) to 92.5 (43.0 / 46.5).
The arithmetic
Google DeepMind is scored on 3 of 5 components, because Alphabet does not disclose lab-level revenue or valuation, so its weights are rescaled over 70 points instead of 100 (see how the score works):
- Arena: 100 (rank 1, score 1524, Gemini 4 Argon (High)), weight 35
- Artificial Analysis: 91.2 (index 52.6), weight 15
- Polymarket odds: 92.5, weight 20
(35 x 100 + 15 x 91.2 + 20 x 92.5) / 70 = 6718 / 70 = 96.0.
Anthropic has all 5 components: Arena 84 (rank 3, score 1508), Artificial Analysis 100 (index 57.6, the highest tracked), revenue 100, valuation 100 and odds 100, for 9440 / 100 = 94.4.
So the 2026 market still prices Anthropic slightly ahead, yet Google leads the board, because Google holds the #1 Arena spot and its odds are now close enough to the top price. The rescaling for partial coverage is a known bias, and the methodology says so.
The shorter markets moved further
Polymarket's two shorter-dated markets swung harder toward Google over the same three days:
- End of October: Google 88.4% (from 70.65% on 19 Oct), Anthropic 10.5% (from 27.5%).
- End of November: Google 58.0% (from 43.5%), Anthropic 36.0% (from 45.5%). On 19 Oct this market leaned Anthropic.
These two markets are shown on the site but do not feed the score; only the end-of-2026 market does. Prediction-market prices are probabilities implied by traders, not certainties, and can move again before the markets resolve. This is not investment or trading advice.
Live odds for all three markets are on the best-model odds page, and the full weekly table is on the scoreboard.
Sources
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, fetched 19 Oct and 22 Oct 2026)
- Which company has the best AI model end of October? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, fetched 19 Oct and 22 Oct 2026)
- Which company has the best AI model end of November? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, fetched 19 Oct and 22 Oct 2026)
- Arena text leaderboard (opens in new tab) (as of 15 Oct 2026)
- Artificial Analysis leaderboards (opens in new tab) (fetched 22 Oct 2026)