Best AI model odds on Polymarket, October 2026 history
Polymarket runs three markets on which company will have the best AI model at a given date: end of October, end of November and end of 2026. The scoreboard records their prices at every refresh. Only the end-of-2026 market feeds the score (20 of 100 weight points); the other two are shown for context. Here is how all three moved over the snapshots the board has so far.
End of 2026: the market that feeds the score
Yes prices in "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?":
| Snapshot | Anthropic | OpenAI | Meta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 (backfilled) | 41.5% | 42.5% | 9.95% | 2.15% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 47.5% | 39.5% | 7.6% | 2.75% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 49.5% | 39.5% | 7.3% | 2.15% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 46.5% | 43.0% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
The 10 Oct row is a backfill: the prices come from Polymarket's public price history, not from a refresh run on that day. Traded volume in this market was $2.56M on 17 Oct and $2.87M on 22 Oct.
Three things stand out:
- Anthropic took the lead and kept it. It went from 1 point behind Google on 10 Oct to 10 points ahead on 19 Oct. By 22 Oct the gap had narrowed to 3.5 points, but Anthropic still had the highest price.
- OpenAI's price more than halved, from 9.95% to 4.9% in twelve days. That is the biggest relative drop among the four labs with meaningful prices.
- Meta stayed below 3% in every snapshot, even though Meta's best model sits at #2 on the Arena text leaderboard (as of 15 Oct 2026).
The shorter markets point the other way
| Market | Snapshot | Anthropic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of October | 17 Oct | 75.35% | 23.5% |
| End of October | 19 Oct | 70.65% | 27.5% |
| End of October | 22 Oct | 88.4% | 10.5% |
| End of November | 17 Oct | 42.5% | 47.5% |
| End of November | 19 Oct | 43.5% | 45.5% |
| End of November | 22 Oct | 58.0% | 36.0% |
The end-of-October market has favored Google in every snapshot, and by 22 Oct it priced Google at 88.4%, with $3.21M traded. The November market flipped from Anthropic to Google between 19 and 22 Oct. Read together, on 22 Oct traders priced a clear Google lead for October and November and a near coin flip, slightly favoring Anthropic, for the end of 2026.
How the odds move the score
The odds component is 100 x the lab's Yes price / the highest Yes price in the end-of-2026 market. When Anthropic's price fell and Google's rose between 19 and 22 Oct, Google's odds component went from 79.8 to 92.5. That was enough to put Google DeepMind back at #1 on the board, 96.0 to 94.4 (full story).
Prediction-market prices are probabilities implied by traders, not certainties, and they can move sharply before a market resolves. This is not investment or trading advice. Current prices for all three markets are on the best-model odds page and the odds leaderboard.
Sources
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, price history for 10 Oct; fetched 17, 19 and 22 Oct 2026)
- Which company has the best AI model end of October? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, fetched 17, 19 and 22 Oct 2026)
- Which company has the best AI model end of November? (opens in new tab) (Polymarket, fetched 17, 19 and 22 Oct 2026)
- Arena text leaderboard (opens in new tab) (as of 15 Oct 2026)